Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Thoughts on the Economy and My Place in it

Controversial opinion post. I am not bothering to cite my sources because I really don't have the energy. I just need to get my thoughts out. Maybe I'm wrong about some of this stuff, but this is where my mind is at. 

We have a major economic problem in the USA. Middle class earns around $100k-$150k, depending on if families have children or not. Housing is nearly impossible to afford. Groceries are ridiculously expensive all the sudden. It's very hard to find a job that pays enough to pay off student loans. Medical expenses are enough to put anyone into bankruptcy, even after our overpriced expensive insurance "helps." 

...and I think a solution could be for the government to pay couples to have children. 

The government already pays for parents to foster children. Why not some stimulus for supporting couples in having their own children too? Maybe only 1 child per couple, just enough to encourage couples to have children. There should be a strict application process to weed out people who would simply try to take advantage and be terrible parents. 

Here's why I'm thinking this way:

There is a problem beginning to affect our economy called the "demographic cliff." There are fewer teenagers these days, and the teenagers we do have are not necessarily working or considering college. High School extracurricular activities are so time-consuming now, partially because programs like sports are trying to be as competitive as professional teams, and partially because parents need to keep their children occupied and so they put them in every activity they can. Teenagers are struggling to find time to get their homework done, let alone have a chance to hang out and play. 

Have you seen all the "now hiring" signs on fast-food restaurants, grocery stores, and other entry-level low-wage positions? That's because there are fewer teenagers overall, and also because teenagers have less time for work now. Who will fill these positions? Not adults, because these jobs don't pay enough for adults to meet their financial needs: student loan debt, car debt, rent, groceries, insurance, etc. And no, we really don't want these businesses to simply close their doors, but that's what happening because they can't find enough employees to stay open. That's why using robots and AI in place of a human worker is not necessarily a bad thing for business and the economy. 

We know that this trend is only going to continue because stores are now selling more adult diapers than baby diapers. The birth rate has been declining since the 70's. 

Many people are arguing that we have a global overpopulation crisis, but every economist I read says the exact opposite: we don't have enough people to support the economy, and it's getting worse. 

Part of the problem is the rate of infertility is increasing. Men have less testosterone, thyroid diseases are on the rise, and women are finally getting recognition for reproductive diseases like endometriosis (and are being told more frequently not to attempt pregnancy due to complications and risks.) In many cases, couples who want children can't have them. It's not fair, is it?  

What will happen if the population thins out too much? I'm no expert, but I have guesses:

We're already seeing tons of smaller colleges closing their doors for good. We're already seeing more and more franchises going bankrupt and closing their stores and restaurants. 

This means that the businesses that survive will probably make more money because the population will rely more on them. Unless these businesses decide to pay livable wages and treat people well, then the pay gap will probably increase more. The rich will get richer, and the middle class will disappear until there is only a lower and upper class. People will have less money to support Capitalism, because Capitalism requires people constantly exchanging money. It's soul-crushing and meaningless to rely on people constantly consuming and buying things, but that is precisely what MUST happen to support the economy. Where you shop and how much money you spend is the foundation of your local economy. 

Take a step back from reality for a moment. Let your consciousness float in the air over your city and look at what your city is made of. What do you see? It's a lot of retailers and restaurants, right? There are services too, like medical, chiropractic, cleaning, repair, etc. But the majority? Retail. Think about how many people it takes to shop at each and every one of those stores daily to keep those stores open and earning a profit. Now imagine half the amount people suddenly disappear. Who will shop at each and every one of those stores enough to keep them open? So let's say half the retailers close their stores because there isn't enough demand for their businesses? Cities will be full of empty properties. Abandoned buildings. Aren't we already seeing this trend? Fewer businesses, less money exchanging hands, leading to fewer taxes for the local government. When the government has less tax revenue, they're less likely to afford to repair the infrastructure of the city. People start to move out of the city into bigger cities where there are more available jobs and resources. Cities die. Haven't we already been seeing small towns across America shrink and die?

But when we lose our small towns and cities, we have to rely more and more on shipping food into the city. Local food is harder to find, but the food shipped into cities is a little older and less fresh. We have to pay more for our food due to the cost of shipping. But we also need enough people growing the food that gets shipped to bigger cities, right? Who will work those jobs if they're not paid enough to afford life? So that means farmers and ranchers find help from people in other countries willing to work for a low wage, because the dollar will go far when they return to their counties. Less money circulates in our country's economy. And more people have less money. 

I haven't even gotten started on the problems with dead soil, mass extinctions of many breeds of insects and animals, microplastics being found in every part of the earth and water we test, etc. We're in an environmental nightmare. And yes, that has a major impact on the economy too. What happens when farming stops working?

I really believe we need a paradigm shift... immediately. Our economy is unsustainable and unstable. 

What I've been seeing happening to cope with all the current problems is predatory marketing. Businesses are offering "buy now pay later" options to get you to make purchases you can't afford. Colleges are asking teenagers to sign agreements to $40k+ loans that they may never be able to pay off. People are getting desperate enough to fall into investment traps: "spend $500 to start a dropshipping website that might, if you're super lucky, help you earn $10k a month with very little work!!!" It's BS, most people won't make enough money online like this, but people are falling for it and giving it a try, wasting their money in the attempt. People can't find places to rent that are less than 30% of their income now, and if they do the places are often full of problems like mold and neglect. It's really hard to buy a house because they're almost less affordable than rent. It's all very predatory. 

So my thought is that we need to shift many many things in our economy... but a great way to start is to encourage people to have children. So many couples are avoiding children because they're a financial nightmare. There's no joy in having children when it's impossible to pay for them. The only way for many couples to afford children is if both parents are working full-time and they're both earning more than the cost of daycare. Well, when the average cost of daycare per year is around $35k... do your jobs pay enough after taxes to cover the cost of daycare? Will you even make a profit? And so, isn't it better to actually have one parent stay home and raise the child?

And what a concept... parents actually being able to parent! Children deserve parents who are able to be parents because they're available: physically, emotionally, and spiritually. How can parents be available when they're working full time and exhausted? Their life isn't focused on their children. It's focused on their job. So.... let's ease the burden. Parenting could actually be financially do-able if parents were given money each month for the cost of raising the child. 

Am I crazy? Let me know...

These are the types of thoughts giving me an incredible amount of anxiety and causing me to loose sleep at night. Yes, I could choose to focus on the positive in life, or I could be realistic and dream up solutions to these major problems... 

And where do I, a low-skilled 36 year old partially disabled woman fit into this economic picture? It's haunting. And scary. 

Anyway... lunch time. I gotta eat to keep surviving... for what, exactly? Well, for hope. I have to have hope. 

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